Protect The Fence
Posts
Cincinnati Red Organization Review

Cincinnati Red Organization Review

A tandem of high upside SPs lead the way

Brian Creagh
February 16, 2023

Cincinnati Reds Organization Review

Over the next three weeks, I will be publishing organization overviews for every MLB team. Each post will be a deep dive into all levels of the organization and picking out fantasy relevant nuggets. The primary focus will be at the MLB level and trying to uncover players I want to target in upcoming drafts, but I am playing in a few dynasty leagues and want to try to highlight some players to stash or keep an eye out for upcoming trades.

Picks For 2023

Players I like in fantasy drafts given their current price. All ADPs are from the last two months of NFC data.

Wil Myers (ADP: 220) - His ADP has been steadily falling since signing with Cincinnati on December 22. His value is purely tied to the opportunities he'll get hitting in the middle of the Reds lineup, which isn't great, but should justify a price in the top 17 to 18 rounds of your draft. Pick 170ish is about as early as I'd go for Myers, which puts him in the Lars Nootbaar, Harrison Bader, Ty France area. That feels right, considering the tier above is Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Santander, Giancarlo Stanton who I like all better than Myers.

Alexis Diaz (ADP: 146) - Similar to Myers, this is a pure opportunity/volume play with Diaz. He was fine in his debut last year jumping from AA. Great K% (32.5%) numbers, but iffy BB% (12.9%). The opportunity lies in the fact that there is nothing else in this bullpen behind him. The role is his unless he bombs, which I put at a low likelihood of occurring, or he gets dealt at the deadline.

Hunter Greene (ADP: 111) - His peripherals weren't spectacular in his debut (4.37 FIP) but his 16.1 HR/FB% is not likely sustainable, and if that normalizes Greene can do some real fantasy damage. I'm a little nervous about the lack of Wins he's probably going to earn, but his ADP seems to have priced that in appropriately - he's going around Robbie Ray, Luis Severino, Blake Snell, and Logan Webb. While those guys are all pitchers in good-to-great spots for racking up Wins, I'd rather take the talent in Greene and hope he continues to take a step forward and runs into some good Win luck.

Fades For 2023

Players I don't love at current ADP.

Tyler Stephenson (ADP: 125) - I'm just skeptical investing this much off of a 183 plate appearance season in 2022. There are some good names to bolster a rotation with in this spot (Freddy Peralta, Joe Ryan, Lance Lynn) and they are too hard to pass up to lock up my catcher.

Jake Fraley (ADP: 313) - It's a stretch putting him here because his cost is so cheap, but there really isn't anyone else I dislike at their price. Fraley is getting some juice as a cheap 10 HR/ 10 SB player, but he's firmly in a platoon and is going to be a headache to own and roster him enough to accumulate those HRs and SBs. Tons of late options I like more as fliers.

MLB Breakout Player(s)

Players I like to outperform expectations

Hunter Greene - Same reasons as above

Nick Lodolo (ADP: 129) - Lodolo had a great debut in 2022 going for 103 IP, 3.90 FIP, and 30% K%. Him and Greene form a really nice top of the rotation, and while I like Greene more for fantasy purposes, Lodolo shouldn't be overlooked.

Elly De La Cruz (ADP: N/A) - He looks like the real deal. If he gets a cup of coffee in 2023, I'm ready to pay up to get him.

Favorite Prospects Outside Top 5

Prospects outside of MLB.com's Top 5 that I want to target in dynasty leagues.

Michael Siani - He's a pure speed play, but Siani got a call-up in 2022 so he's on the cusp of making an extended impact in the Majors. He's a name to keep an eye on, because if injuries call him into a starting role, he can accumulate an impactful number of SBs.

Christian Encarnacion-Stroud - Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, CES has a legit bat and can hit for both power and average. He's been a little old for his level so far in his career, but an extended look at AA or even AAA could confirm any doubts about how the bat will play.

Chase Petty - Acquired in the Sonny Gray trade, Petty was the first round pick of the Twins in 2021. He threw 98 solid innings in 2022 and should reach AA by the end of this year.

Bullpen

Here is how I would rank the arms in the bullpen. This considers a mix of projected role and talent/likelihood of taking over the closers role.

Alexis Diaz
Buck Farmer

This bullpen is kind of a disaster once you get past Diaz. Farmer is my best bet, but there really isn't anybody I think can step in and succeed to the closer's role.