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Cleveland Guardians Organization Review

Cleveland Guardians Organization Review

Undervalued Arms. Overvalued Bats.

Brian Creagh
March 01, 2023

Cleveland Guardians Organization Review

Over the next three weeks, I will be publishing organization overviews for every MLB team. Each post will be a deep dive into all levels of the organization and picking out fantasy relevant nuggets. The primary focus will be at the MLB level and trying to uncover players I want to target in upcoming drafts, but I am playing in a few dynasty leagues and want to try to highlight some players to stash or keep an eye out for upcoming trades.

Picks For 2023

Players I like in fantasy drafts given their current price. All ADPs are from the last two months of NFC data.

Triston McKenzie (ADP: 93) - McKenzie has a lot going for him heading into 2023: age (he'll spend most of the season at 25 years old), a full productive season last year (3.59 FIP in 191 IP), and in a weak division that should help him rack up Wins in fantasy.

Shane Bieber (ADP: 55) - We're getting Bieber at a discount this draft season, and I can't quite put my finger on why. His 2.88 ERA last year lined up exactly with his 2.87 FIP, so there isn't a ton of negative regression to bake into his projection, but across-the-board all systems have him at a 3.35-ish ERA. Cristian Javier, Luis Castillo, and Dylan Cease are going before Bieber in drafts, but I like Bieber more than all of those options.

Fades For 2023

Players I don't love at current ADP.

Jose Ramirez (ADP: 3.2) - It's all about risk aversion at the top of the board, and Ramirez now being on the wrong side of the 30 with so many young studs available at the same spot leave me fading Jose Ramirez. Give me Acuna, Trea and J-Rod over Ramirez.

Steven Kwan (ADP: 114) - There's no real upside in Kwan's profile. Another .300 AVG, 90 R, and 20 SB season is the ceiling. He's an awesome leadoff hitter in an okay lineup, and that just doesn't translate to a lot of fantasy goodness. I'd rather gamble on Christian Yelich or Kris Bryant, both of whom are going later in drafts then Kwan.

MLB Breakout Player(s)

Players I like to outperform expectations

Aaron Civale (ADP: 315) - Civale and his rotation mate, Cal Quantrill, are going at the same spot in drafts and both are appealing fantasy arms. I lean Civale, because the per-inning stats are so much better. If both pitch 150 IP, Civale will likely have the better fantasy season (Wins and ERA luck might end up proving otherwise). He's maxed out at 124 IP in a season, but late in the draft where the guys you pick are droppable right away, I'd rather ride Civale until he gets hurt and replace him.

Bo Naylor (ADP: 369) - He'll end up being undrafted in a lot of standard 5x5 leagues, but Naylor is a guy to keep an eye out. Mike Zunino delays Naylor's insertion to the starting lineup, but an opportunity will present itself and Naylor can be a fantasy difference maker as an offensive-minded catcher.

Favorite Prospects Outside Top 5

Prospects outside of MLB.com's Top 5 that I want to target in dynasty leagues.

Angel Martinez - Martinez is moving quickly through the Guardians system, reaching AA as a 20 year old last year. He's a middle infield prospect with some pop and ability to steal a base.

Juan Brito - Shows an advanced approach at the plate, power in his swing, and speed on the basepaths. He's a little old for his level having played Low-A last year at 20 years old, but the raw talent is there for Brito to breakthrough the prospect ranks.